The Hull moving average is a moving average built to lag less. Alan Hull introduced it in 2005: it takes a weighted average over half the period, doubles it, subtracts the full-period weighted average and smooths the result over the square root of the period. The line hugs the price much more closely than a simple average and turns quickly.
I tested it on gold since 2000 the way StockCharts suggests using it: buy when the 20-day Hull average turns up while the 50-day one is rising, sell when the 20-day turns down. No crossovers, which Hull himself doesn’t recommend. 135 closed trades.
The rules
- Buy when the 20-day Hull moving average turns up (it rises after a day it didn’t) while the 50-day Hull moving average is rising.
- Sell when the 20-day Hull moving average turns down.
- Alan Hull’s formula as StockCharts gives it: HMA = WMA(√n) of (2 × WMA(n/2) − WMA(n)) on the daily close, with ChartSchool’s 20-day entry and 50-day trend settings. Long only; in cash between trades.
Market: Gold futures, continuous front month (GC=F); contract rolls can leave small price jumps.
The result
| Hull moving average | Buy-and-hold | |
|---|---|---|
| Annual return | 1.72% | 10.98% |
| Total return | 56% | 1392% |
| Max drawdown | −24.6% | −44.4% |
| Worst fall, from – to | Sep 2003 – Dec 2008 | Aug 2011 – Dec 2015 |
| Time in the market | 21% | 100% |
| Trades | Value |
|---|---|
| Closed trades | 135 |
| Winners | 65 (48.1%) |
| Average winner | +3.05% |
| Average loser | −2.08% |
| Win/loss ratio | 1.46 |
| Profit factor | 1.36 |
| Best / worst trade | +12.7% / −9.3% |
| Average holding time | 10 sessions |
My read
It trades about 5 times a year and was in the market only 21% of the days; the average trade lasted 10 trading days. 48% of the trades won. The average winner made 3.0% and the average loser lost 2.1%, a profit factor of 1.36. The typical trade made almost nothing: the median was −0.1%.
The best trade, bought in Jan 2016, made 12.7% in 23 days. The worst was bought in Mar 2020, just before the Covid crash, and lost 9.3% in 5 days: the line turns quickly, but not as quickly as gold fell that week. The ten best trades together made more than the whole test; the other 125 lost money as a group.
Over the whole period it made 1.7% a year against 11.0% for holding gold. Its worst fall was 25% against 44%, but it was a slow slide from Sep 2003 to Dec 2008, years of small losses while gold itself more than doubled. It also did worse than both earlier gold tests, the MACD crossover and the Bollinger Band bounce. All of this is before costs.
My read: less lag is not the same as a better signal. A line that turns fast also turns on noise, and on gold most of the turns were noise: in and out within two weeks for nothing. The gains came from a handful of clean runs. I would rather use a fast average like this to manage a trade I already have than to decide when to buy one.
Every trade
135 closed trades, newest first
| Bought | Price | Sold | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-12 | 4,948.4 | 2026-03-06 | 5,158.7 | +4.2% |
| 2026-01-08 | 4,460.7 | 2026-02-03 | 4,935.0 | +10.6% |
| 2025-11-28 | 4,254.9 | 2025-12-31 | 4,341.1 | +2.0% |
| 2025-09-23 | 3,815.7 | 2025-10-23 | 4,145.6 | +8.6% |
| 2025-08-26 | 3,433.0 | 2025-09-19 | 3,705.8 | +7.9% |
| 2025-08-05 | 3,434.7 | 2025-08-15 | 3,382.6 | −1.5% |
| 2025-06-13 | 3,452.8 | 2025-06-23 | 3,395.0 | −1.7% |
| 2025-05-08 | 3,306.0 | 2025-05-13 | 3,247.8 | −1.8% |
| 2025-04-11 | 3,244.6 | 2025-04-29 | 3,333.6 | +2.7% |
| 2024-10-16 | 2,691.3 | 2024-11-04 | 2,746.2 | +2.0% |
| 2024-09-13 | 2,610.7 | 2024-10-07 | 2,666.0 | +2.1% |
| 2024-08-02 | 2,469.8 | 2024-09-03 | 2,523.0 | +2.2% |
| 2024-06-07 | 2,325.0 | 2024-06-11 | 2,326.6 | +0.1% |
| 2024-03-28 | 2,217.4 | 2024-04-23 | 2,342.1 | +5.6% |
| 2023-12-19 | 2,052.1 | 2024-01-04 | 2,050.0 | −0.1% |
| 2023-09-20 | 1,967.1 | 2023-09-26 | 1,919.8 | −2.4% |
| 2023-08-03 | 1,968.8 | 2023-08-09 | 1,950.6 | −0.9% |
| 2023-04-05 | 2,035.6 | 2023-04-18 | 2,019.7 | −0.8% |
| 2022-12-29 | 1,826.0 | 2023-01-31 | 1,929.5 | +5.7% |
| 2022-12-22 | 1,795.3 | 2022-12-23 | 1,804.2 | +0.5% |
| 2022-12-02 | 1,809.6 | 2022-12-19 | 1,797.7 | −0.7% |
| 2022-06-13 | 1,831.8 | 2022-06-14 | 1,813.5 | −1.0% |
| 2022-01-13 | 1,821.4 | 2022-01-28 | 1,784.9 | −2.0% |
| 2021-11-08 | 1,828.0 | 2021-11-23 | 1,783.8 | −2.4% |
| 2021-07-30 | 1,812.6 | 2021-08-09 | 1,726.5 | −4.8% |
| 2021-05-07 | 1,831.3 | 2021-06-04 | 1,892.0 | +3.3% |
| 2021-04-07 | 1,741.6 | 2021-04-29 | 1,768.3 | +1.5% |
| 2020-11-06 | 1,951.7 | 2020-11-11 | 1,861.6 | −4.6% |
| 2020-10-21 | 1,929.5 | 2020-10-26 | 1,905.7 | −1.2% |
| 2020-07-22 | 1,865.1 | 2020-08-12 | 1,949.0 | +4.5% |
| 2020-06-02 | 1,734.0 | 2020-06-04 | 1,727.4 | −0.4% |
| 2020-03-06 | 1,670.8 | 2020-03-13 | 1,515.7 | −9.3% |
| 2020-01-27 | 1,576.8 | 2020-02-05 | 1,557.8 | −1.2% |
| 2019-12-13 | 1,475.6 | 2020-01-15 | 1,552.1 | +5.2% |
| 2019-08-27 | 1,541.0 | 2019-09-09 | 1,502.2 | −2.5% |
| 2019-08-05 | 1,464.6 | 2019-08-21 | 1,504.6 | +2.7% |
| 2019-07-16 | 1,409.2 | 2019-07-29 | 1,419.6 | +0.7% |
| 2019-05-31 | 1,305.8 | 2019-07-08 | 1,397.0 | +7.0% |
| 2019-02-20 | 1,343.3 | 2019-02-28 | 1,312.8 | −2.3% |
| 2019-01-28 | 1,302.4 | 2019-02-12 | 1,309.2 | +0.5% |
| 2018-11-06 | 1,223.8 | 2018-11-07 | 1,226.2 | +0.2% |
| 2018-10-12 | 1,218.1 | 2018-10-30 | 1,222.6 | +0.4% |
| 2018-09-14 | 1,195.0 | 2018-09-27 | 1,182.3 | −1.1% |
| 2018-06-15 | 1,274.6 | 2018-06-18 | 1,276.2 | +0.1% |
| 2018-04-12 | 1,338.4 | 2018-04-23 | 1,322.5 | −1.2% |
| 2017-08-11 | 1,287.7 | 2017-09-14 | 1,324.7 | +2.9% |
| 2017-04-12 | 1,275.3 | 2017-04-26 | 1,262.1 | −1.0% |
| 2017-02-24 | 1,256.9 | 2017-03-03 | 1,225.5 | −2.5% |
| 2017-02-03 | 1,218.5 | 2017-02-23 | 1,250.2 | +2.6% |
| 2016-08-19 | 1,340.4 | 2016-08-23 | 1,340.6 | +0.0% |
| 2016-06-28 | 1,315.3 | 2016-07-14 | 1,331.3 | +1.2% |
| 2016-04-29 | 1,289.2 | 2016-05-11 | 1,274.6 | −1.1% |
| 2016-04-20 | 1,253.2 | 2016-04-25 | 1,238.9 | −1.1% |
| 2016-03-03 | 1,257.4 | 2016-03-15 | 1,230.4 | −2.1% |
| 2016-01-21 | 1,099.1 | 2016-02-24 | 1,238.7 | +12.7% |
| 2016-01-06 | 1,091.9 | 2016-01-15 | 1,091.5 | −0.0% |
| 2015-12-23 | 1,069.4 | 2015-12-31 | 1,060.3 | −0.9% |
| 2015-12-17 | 1,050.8 | 2015-12-18 | 1,066.2 | +1.5% |
| 2015-10-07 | 1,149.0 | 2015-10-23 | 1,163.3 | +1.2% |
| 2015-04-29 | 1,209.8 | 2015-05-04 | 1,186.8 | −1.9% |
| 2014-12-10 | 1,228.9 | 2014-12-17 | 1,194.3 | −2.8% |
| 2014-12-02 | 1,199.2 | 2014-12-08 | 1,194.7 | −0.4% |
| 2014-07-14 | 1,306.3 | 2014-07-15 | 1,296.9 | −0.7% |
| 2014-05-15 | 1,293.5 | 2014-05-19 | 1,293.7 | +0.0% |
| 2014-05-05 | 1,309.0 | 2014-05-09 | 1,287.3 | −1.7% |
| 2014-05-01 | 1,283.1 | 2014-05-02 | 1,302.6 | +1.5% |
| 2014-03-12 | 1,370.3 | 2014-03-20 | 1,330.5 | −2.9% |
| 2014-03-04 | 1,337.8 | 2014-03-11 | 1,346.5 | +0.7% |
| 2014-02-07 | 1,263.3 | 2014-03-03 | 1,350.1 | +6.9% |
| 2014-01-24 | 1,264.5 | 2014-01-31 | 1,240.1 | −1.9% |
| 2013-08-13 | 1,321.2 | 2013-09-05 | 1,373.1 | +3.9% |
| 2013-02-07 | 1,670.4 | 2013-02-12 | 1,648.7 | −1.3% |
| 2012-10-04 | 1,794.1 | 2012-10-10 | 1,763.2 | −1.7% |
| 2012-08-20 | 1,620.1 | 2012-09-26 | 1,750.6 | +8.1% |
| 2012-08-07 | 1,609.7 | 2012-08-15 | 1,603.7 | −0.4% |
| 2012-07-05 | 1,608.9 | 2012-07-12 | 1,564.9 | −2.7% |
| 2012-04-30 | 1,663.4 | 2012-05-04 | 1,644.7 | −1.1% |
| 2012-02-22 | 1,770.0 | 2012-03-02 | 1,708.8 | −3.5% |
| 2011-10-26 | 1,722.7 | 2011-11-17 | 1,719.8 | −0.2% |
| 2011-09-06 | 1,869.9 | 2011-09-14 | 1,823.5 | −2.5% |
| 2011-06-21 | 1,546.0 | 2011-06-27 | 1,496.0 | −3.2% |
| 2011-03-23 | 1,437.9 | 2011-05-06 | 1,491.2 | +3.7% |
| 2010-12-29 | 1,413.1 | 2011-01-06 | 1,371.4 | −3.0% |
| 2010-09-15 | 1,266.7 | 2010-10-20 | 1,343.3 | +6.0% |
| 2010-06-16 | 1,229.3 | 2010-07-01 | 1,206.3 | −1.9% |
| 2010-06-01 | 1,224.8 | 2010-06-15 | 1,233.2 | +0.7% |
| 2010-04-28 | 1,171.3 | 2010-05-20 | 1,187.8 | +1.4% |
| 2010-03-19 | 1,107.4 | 2010-03-22 | 1,099.3 | −0.7% |
| 2010-03-01 | 1,117.8 | 2010-03-11 | 1,108.0 | −0.9% |
| 2009-11-04 | 1,086.7 | 2009-12-08 | 1,142.8 | +5.2% |
| 2009-10-06 | 1,038.6 | 2009-10-21 | 1,063.7 | +2.4% |
| 2009-08-05 | 964.2 | 2009-08-12 | 950.7 | −1.4% |
| 2009-05-06 | 910.5 | 2009-06-09 | 954.0 | +4.8% |
| 2009-02-12 | 948.5 | 2009-02-27 | 941.5 | −0.7% |
| 2008-12-12 | 818.9 | 2009-01-07 | 841.1 | +2.7% |
| 2008-10-10 | 855.4 | 2008-10-13 | 838.9 | −1.9% |
| 2008-09-18 | 892.7 | 2008-10-02 | 839.0 | −6.0% |
| 2008-03-14 | 998.2 | 2008-03-20 | 919.6 | −7.9% |
| 2008-02-12 | 907.4 | 2008-02-13 | 906.5 | −0.1% |
| 2008-01-28 | 927.1 | 2008-02-06 | 900.7 | −2.8% |
| 2007-11-27 | 813.7 | 2007-12-03 | 788.3 | −3.1% |
| 2007-10-12 | 748.7 | 2007-11-14 | 813.0 | +8.6% |
| 2007-08-08 | 674.5 | 2007-08-17 | 656.9 | −2.6% |
| 2007-05-08 | 685.1 | 2007-05-11 | 670.6 | −2.1% |
| 2007-02-09 | 667.5 | 2007-03-02 | 641.5 | −3.9% |
| 2006-11-28 | 637.2 | 2006-12-08 | 626.1 | −1.7% |
| 2006-10-27 | 598.2 | 2006-11-16 | 620.6 | +3.7% |
| 2006-08-02 | 651.6 | 2006-08-14 | 628.5 | −3.5% |
| 2005-10-10 | 475.1 | 2005-10-17 | 474.1 | −0.2% |
| 2005-09-06 | 444.4 | 2005-10-04 | 466.1 | +4.9% |
| 2005-03-09 | 442.1 | 2005-03-21 | 431.1 | −2.5% |
| 2005-02-15 | 425.9 | 2005-03-04 | 434.2 | +1.9% |
| 2004-11-08 | 432.7 | 2004-12-09 | 435.8 | +0.7% |
| 2004-10-21 | 424.4 | 2004-11-03 | 424.6 | +0.0% |
| 2004-07-09 | 407.5 | 2004-07-21 | 397.1 | −2.6% |
| 2004-06-21 | 394.0 | 2004-07-02 | 398.3 | +1.1% |
| 2003-12-02 | 403.7 | 2004-01-16 | 406.7 | +0.7% |
| 2003-11-12 | 394.9 | 2003-11-25 | 391.1 | −1.0% |
| 2003-09-23 | 385.9 | 2003-10-03 | 369.4 | −4.3% |
| 2003-08-27 | 373.5 | 2003-09-16 | 373.5 | +0.0% |
| 2003-08-12 | 358.5 | 2003-08-26 | 365.8 | +2.0% |
| 2003-01-06 | 351.7 | 2003-02-10 | 363.7 | +3.4% |
| 2002-12-04 | 322.2 | 2003-01-03 | 351.2 | +9.0% |
| 2002-10-01 | 320.9 | 2002-10-02 | 321.5 | +0.2% |
| 2002-09-20 | 321.9 | 2002-09-30 | 323.9 | +0.6% |
| 2002-08-30 | 312.4 | 2002-09-17 | 317.0 | +1.5% |
| 2002-05-21 | 315.8 | 2002-06-07 | 324.6 | +2.8% |
| 2002-04-19 | 302.3 | 2002-05-10 | 311.0 | +2.9% |
| 2002-03-04 | 296.7 | 2002-03-08 | 290.1 | −2.2% |
| 2002-02-04 | 289.3 | 2002-02-20 | 292.3 | +1.0% |
| 2001-12-17 | 277.7 | 2002-01-23 | 278.6 | +0.3% |
| 2001-09-17 | 289.8 | 2001-10-02 | 289.9 | +0.0% |
| 2001-08-08 | 267.9 | 2001-08-24 | 272.5 | +1.7% |
| 2001-03-12 | 271.6 | 2001-03-16 | 258.1 | −5.0% |
| 2000-12-22 | 273.7 | 2001-01-03 | 268.0 | −2.1% |
How it was tested
- Signals are read on the daily close; each trade happens at the next day’s close. No look-ahead.
- Long only, fully in or fully out. No commissions, slippage, interest or dividends.
- The test starts on the first day every indicator has a value (Nov 27, 2000); buy-and-hold covers the same days.
- Prices: Yahoo Finance daily data (GC=F), snapshot
gold-2026-11-11.csv. Checked by a second, independent program before publishing.
Not financial advice. This is educational content, shared for information and entertainment only, and it is not a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Backtests and past results do not guarantee future results, and the numbers or charts here may contain mistakes. Trading carries risk, including losing all the money you put in. Do your own research before you make any decision.