Blog
Essays on trading psychology and method, chart reads and market notes, since 2018.
117 posts · page 1 of 20
Leveraged gold ETF: What 2x gold really returned since 2008
A leveraged gold ETF like ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL) aims for twice gold’s daily move, not twice its long-term return. Since it launched in December…
Stock market correction: every 10% drop since 1950
A stock market correction is a fall of 10% or more that stops before 20%. Since 1950 the S&P 500 has had 29 of them, about one every 2.6 years. The…
Wheel strategy: What 19 years of S&P 500 data show
Does the wheel strategy work? I modelled it on the S&P 500 for every monthly option expiry from July 2007 to October 2026, checked against Cboe’s…
Max drawdown: What 98 years of S&P 500 falls show
Max drawdown is the biggest fall from a peak to a later low, in percent. For the S&P 500 it is −86.2%, from September 1929 to June 1932, and the…
Bull flag pattern: I tested 244 of them
A bull flag is a sharp rise, a short pullback that drifts lower, and a breakout above the high. I tested 244 of them with fixed rules on the S&P 500…