Blog
Sequence of returns risk: Why your retirement date matters
Sequence of returns risk is the danger that bad years come at the start of retirement, while you are taking money out. I ran it on real S&P 500 data…
Blog
Essays on trading psychology and method, chart reads and market notes, since 2018.
96 posts · page 1 of 16
Blog
Buy the dip: What 38 years of S&P 500 data say
Buying the dip means keeping cash aside and investing it when the market falls. I tested it on the S&P 500 with dividends since 1989: $500 a month…
Blog
Bollinger Bands: What 56 years of S&P 500, gold and Bitcoin data show
Bollinger Bands are a 20-day moving average with a band two standard deviations above and below it. I tested John Bollinger’s own rules on the S&P…
Blog
Bitcoin death cross: What all 10 since 2015 did next
Bitcoin has had 10 death crosses since 2015, the days its 50-day moving average fell below the 200-day. A year later the price was higher after 5 of…
Blog
Risk of ruin: How bet size decides if your account survives
Risk of ruin is the chance that a run of losses takes your account down to a point you can’t come back from. I simulated 1,000 trades, 10,000 times…
Blog
Risk reward ratio: Why it means nothing without the win rate
The risk reward ratio compares what a trade can lose, from the entry to the stop, with what it can make, from the entry to the target. Risk $1 to…