The past is not a good guide to make predictions about the future because the future will be different. One should take as little as possible but as much as necessary from a backtest. A backtest shows how an idea would have worked out in the past if one followed a specific set of rules. […]
Tag: quant trading
I’ve been following Rob’s work for quite some time. He is a systematic trend-following trader, who trades different futures markets. He is also very mathematical in his quantitative approach. I decided to read his book about systematic trading to better understand his thought process. It was published in 2015. Introduction to the topic Rob has […]
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The house edge
In a casino you want to be the house not the gambler. Think of the house edge. The more people come to play, the more a casino can take advantage of its statistical positive expectancy. I hadn’t put much thought to it until couple of years ago a backtest clicked to me. A smaller edge […]
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Sell in May and go away?
I don’t make trading decisions based on sayings that rhyme well. There has been a seasonality expectation that the period of lower performance in equities tends to be from May to October, and the period of higher performance from November to April. I am a quant and I like to look at data to verify […]
In 2019, my trading started to turn more into quantitative style. First, I backtested ideas manually with charts and spreadsheets, then switched to AmiBroker. I’d been thinking of signing up to TradeStation, a popular trading software and brokerage since the ’90s. Even though AmiBroker Formula Language (AFL) differs from EasyLanguage (EZL) by TS, the process […]