Trader Markus
A trader’s notes on US stocks, options, futures, forex and crypto: technical analysis, risk management and trading psychology, with the stops and targets shown.
- 1 Fibonacci 61.8% bounceEUR/USD · 2004–2026 1.5%Per year −0.4%Buy & hold 57%Win rate −10%Max drawdown
- 2 Golden crossS&P 500 · 1970–2026 7.5%Per year 8.4%Buy & hold 81%Win rate −34%Max drawdown
- 3 MACD crossoverGold · 2000–2026 4.3%Per year 11.3%Buy & hold 48%Win rate −32%Max drawdown
The levels I’m watching this week
S&P 500, Bitcoin, gold and EUR/USD: the trend, two supports and two resistances, and what would change the picture. Last week’s levels are scored in public.
See this week’s levels- S&P 5007,723UptrendR17,755S17,700
- Bitcoin86,513UptrendR187,146S185,000
- Gold4,162.3DowntrendR14,215.5S14,100.0
- EUR/USD1.1250DowntrendR11.1325S11.1219
Latest writing
All posts
What is VWAP in trading? A test on 3 years of SPY data
VWAP, the volume-weighted average price, is the average price of the day weighted by how many shares traded at each price. It starts fresh at the…
FOMO trading: What 34 Bitcoin rallies since 2014 show
FOMO trading means buying because a price is running away from you, not because your plan says buy. The fear of missing out makes you enter late…
Trading journal template: Free Excel sheet and how to use it
A trading journal template is a spreadsheet with one row per trade: entry, stop, target, size, exit, the result in dollars and in R, and a few honest…
Covered call: What 24 years of S&P 500 data say about it
A covered call means you own 100 shares and sell someone the right to buy them from you at a fixed price, for a fee you keep. It turns some of a…
Worst month for stocks: What 55 years of S&P 500 data show
September is the worst month for stocks. From 1971 to 2025 the S&P 500 lost 0.90% in an average September and closed the month higher in only 44% of…
From the book library
All 66 reviews
Fooled by Randomness
Recommended — about bias, probability and luck; newer traders should read it twice.
Unknown Market Wizards
I enjoyed it and recommend it; fans of earlier Market Wizards books will be eager.
Trading in the Zone
There are more good insights; I recommend it if you want to trade in the zone.
Stocks on the Move
An educational read if you want to study systematic momentum trading in stocks.
Lessons Learned
All 35 lessonsDrawdowns are like scars showing that we have survived
Drawdowns are an inevitable part of taking risk; surviving them within expected ranges is nothing to regret.
Every trading strategy has drawdowns
Accounts are in drawdown most of the time; know your strategy's expected distribution and stick with it.
Focus on process, not results
Market outcomes are random; follow your trading plan and judge the process rather than individual results.
Live to fight another day
Take small losses to preserve capital so you can make big profits when the right time comes.
Cut losses quickly, let profits run
Respect your plan's profit targets, and exit losing trades quickly; re-entry is only a commission away.
I read the chart, and the chart tells me where I’m wrong.
About ten years in the markets, trading US stocks, options, futures, forex and crypto. The tools, the tests and the mistakes are all on this blog.