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Only 4% of the stocks matter and what I do about it
When you look at the stock market, it might seem like every stock has a chance to make you rich if you just hold on long enough. But research tells a…
Stocks. Options. Futures.
Trader Markus
A trader’s notes on US stocks, options, futures, forex and crypto: technical analysis, risk management and trading psychology, with the stops and targets shown.
The Setup Lab · leaderboard Classic chart signals, backtested on real daily data. Ranked by how each did against simply holding the same market.
- 1 Golden crossS&P 500 · 1970–2026 7.5%Per year 8.4%Buy & hold 81%Win rate −34%Max drawdown
- 2 MACD crossoverGold · 2000–2026 4.3%Per year 11.3%Buy & hold 48%Win rate −32%Max drawdown
- 3 RSI under 30Bitcoin · 2014–2026 14.4%Per year 57.5%Buy & hold 71%Win rate −67%Max drawdown
Long only, no costs, signals on the close, trades at the next close. Past results don’t predict future ones. All tests and the method
Weekly levels · week of Sep 21, 2026
The levels I’m watching this week
S&P 500, Bitcoin, gold and EUR/USD: the trend, two supports and two resistances, and what would change the picture. Last week’s levels are scored in public.
See this week’s levels- S&P 5007,764UptrendR17,794S17,700
- Bitcoin86,172UptrendR190,000S185,000
- Gold4,376.4MixedR14,439.8S14,329.2
- EUR/USD1.1465DowntrendR11.1478S11.1379
Latest writing
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Blog
Let’s keep losing these $1 bills
Market participants mostly use the S&P 500 index as their benchmark to compare performance against the overall stock market. This often creates…
Blog
A surprising twist that boosts long-term momentum results
I wasn’t sure if I wanted to write about this publicly because I found something that boosts long-term momentum results by a lot, and I haven’t seen…
Blog
From $100K to $4.5M: The 30-minute-a-month strategy
Based on years of research, two of my main mantras in the market are: Hold the strongest stocks in an uptrend – mathematically the best way to…
Blog
Past performance is not indicative of future results
It’s been a while since my last post. I’ve been enjoying summer and spending time outdoors. I’ll share some recent thoughts. I was crunching numbers…
Blog
The market is understood backwards, but can only be traded forwards
I’ve been thinking about the structural changes in the financial industry. I really think the markets have had a huge shift in the past 5-6 years…
Blog
Only 4% of the stocks matter and what I do about it
When you look at the stock market, it might seem like every stock has a chance to make you rich if you just hold on long enough. But research tells a…
From the book library
All 64 reviews
Psychology
Fooled by Randomness
Recommended — about bias, probability and luck; newer traders should read it twice.
Interviews
Unknown Market Wizards
I enjoyed it and recommend it; fans of earlier Market Wizards books will be eager.
Psychology
Trading in the Zone
There are more good insights; I recommend it if you want to trade in the zone.
Systematic Trading
Stocks on the Move
An educational read if you want to study systematic momentum trading in stocks.
Lessons Learned
All 35 lessonsDrawdowns are like scars showing that we have survived
Drawdowns are an inevitable part of taking risk; surviving them within expected ranges is nothing to regret.
Every trading strategy has drawdowns
Accounts are in drawdown most of the time; know your strategy's expected distribution and stick with it.
Focus on process, not results
Market outcomes are random; follow your trading plan and judge the process rather than individual results.
Live to fight another day
Take small losses to preserve capital so you can make big profits when the right time comes.
Cut losses quickly, let profits run
Respect your plan's profit targets, and exit losing trades quickly; re-entry is only a commission away.
About
I read the chart, and the chart tells me where I’m wrong.
About ten years in the markets, trading US stocks, options, futures, forex and crypto. The tools, the tests and the mistakes are all on this blog.