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Leveraged gold ETF: What 2x gold really returned since 2008
A leveraged gold ETF like ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL) aims for twice gold’s daily move, not twice its long-term return. Since it launched in December…
Stocks. Options. Futures.
Trader Markus
A trader’s notes on US stocks, options, futures, forex and crypto: technical analysis, risk management and trading psychology, with the stops and targets shown.
The Setup Lab · leaderboard Classic chart signals, backtested on real daily data. Ranked by how each did against simply holding the same market.
- 1 Fibonacci 61.8% bounceEUR/USD · 2004–2026 1.5%Per year −0.4%Buy & hold 57%Win rate −10%Max drawdown
- 2 Ichimoku cloudEUR/USD · 2004–2026 −0.41%Per year −0.44%Buy & hold 32%Win rate −28%Max drawdown
- 3 Golden crossS&P 500 · 1970–2026 7.5%Per year 8.4%Buy & hold 81%Win rate −34%Max drawdown
Long only, no costs, signals on the close, trades at the next close. Past results don’t predict future ones. All tests and the method
Weekly levels · week of Nov 2, 2026
The levels I’m watching this week
S&P 500, Bitcoin, gold and EUR/USD: the trend, two supports and two resistances, and what would change the picture. Last week’s levels are scored in public.
See this week’s levels- S&P 5007,580MixedR17,611S17,528
- Bitcoin78,225MixedR179,736S176,190
- Gold3,898.9DowntrendR13,955.4S13,879.3
- EUR/USD1.1183DowntrendR11.1227S11.1110
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Blog
Stock market correction: every 10% drop since 1950
A stock market correction is a fall of 10% or more that stops before 20%. Since 1950 the S&P 500 has had 29 of them, about one every 2.6 years. The…
Blog
Wheel strategy: What 19 years of S&P 500 data show
Does the wheel strategy work? I modelled it on the S&P 500 for every monthly option expiry from July 2007 to October 2026, checked against Cboe’s…
Blog
Max drawdown: What 98 years of S&P 500 falls show
Max drawdown is the biggest fall from a peak to a later low, in percent. For the S&P 500 it is −86.2%, from September 1929 to June 1932, and the…
Blog
Bull flag pattern: I tested 244 of them
A bull flag is a sharp rise, a short pullback that drifts lower, and a breakout above the high. I tested 244 of them with fixed rules on the S&P 500…
Blog
Cup and handle pattern: The rules and a real breakout
A cup and handle is a bullish continuation pattern: after a rise, the price builds a rounded, U-shaped base (the cup), pulls back a little near the…
Blog
Leveraged gold ETF: What 2x gold really returned since 2008
A leveraged gold ETF like ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL) aims for twice gold’s daily move, not twice its long-term return. Since it launched in December…
From the book library
All 71 reviews
Psychology
Fooled by Randomness
Recommended — about bias, probability and luck; newer traders should read it twice.
Interviews
Unknown Market Wizards
I enjoyed it and recommend it; fans of earlier Market Wizards books will be eager.
Psychology
Trading in the Zone
There are more good insights; I recommend it if you want to trade in the zone.
Systematic Trading
Stocks on the Move
An educational read if you want to study systematic momentum trading in stocks.
Lessons Learned
All 35 lessonsDrawdowns are like scars showing that we have survived
Drawdowns are an inevitable part of taking risk; surviving them within expected ranges is nothing to regret.
Every trading strategy has drawdowns
Accounts are in drawdown most of the time; know your strategy's expected distribution and stick with it.
Focus on process, not results
Market outcomes are random; follow your trading plan and judge the process rather than individual results.
Live to fight another day
Take small losses to preserve capital so you can make big profits when the right time comes.
Cut losses quickly, let profits run
Respect your plan's profit targets, and exit losing trades quickly; re-entry is only a commission away.
About
I read the chart, and the chart tells me where I’m wrong.
About ten years in the markets, trading US stocks, options, futures, forex and crypto. The tools, the tests and the mistakes are all on this blog.