Blog
Iron condor: What 38 years of S&P 500 data say about it
An iron condor is four options with the same expiry: you sell an out-of-the-money put and an out-of-the-money call, and buy a put and a call further…
Stocks. Options. Futures.
Trader Markus
A trader’s notes on US stocks, options, futures, forex and crypto: technical analysis, risk management and trading psychology, with the stops and targets shown.
The Setup Lab · leaderboard Classic chart signals, backtested on real daily data. Ranked by how each did against simply holding the same market.
- 1 Fibonacci 61.8% bounceEUR/USD · 2004–2026 1.5%Per year −0.4%Buy & hold 57%Win rate −10%Max drawdown
- 2 Golden crossS&P 500 · 1970–2026 7.5%Per year 8.4%Buy & hold 81%Win rate −34%Max drawdown
- 3 20-day breakoutBitcoin · 2014–2026 53.9%Per year 58.7%Buy & hold 44%Win rate −57%Max drawdown
Long only, no costs, signals on the close, trades at the next close. Past results don’t predict future ones. All tests and the method
Weekly levels · week of Oct 5, 2026
The levels I’m watching this week
S&P 500, Bitcoin, gold and EUR/USD: the trend, two supports and two resistances, and what would change the picture. Last week’s levels are scored in public.
See this week’s levels- S&P 5007,723UptrendR17,755S17,700
- Bitcoin86,513UptrendR187,146S185,000
- Gold4,162.3DowntrendR14,215.5S14,100.0
- EUR/USD1.1250DowntrendR11.1325S11.1219
Latest writing
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Blog
Poor man’s covered call: Testing the rules on real SPY quotes
A poor man’s covered call is a covered call where a long-dated, deep in-the-money call option stands in for the 100 shares. You buy that call, sell a…
Blog
Cash secured put: What 19 years of S&P 500 data say about it
A cash-secured put means you sell a put option and keep enough cash in the account to buy the 100 shares if the stock falls below the strike. You get…
Blog
What is VWAP in trading? A test on 3 years of SPY data
VWAP, the volume-weighted average price, is the average price of the day weighted by how many shares traded at each price. It starts fresh at the…
Blog
FOMO trading: What 34 Bitcoin rallies since 2014 show
FOMO trading means buying because a price is running away from you, not because your plan says buy. The fear of missing out makes you enter late…
Blog
Iron condor: What 38 years of S&P 500 data say about it
An iron condor is four options with the same expiry: you sell an out-of-the-money put and an out-of-the-money call, and buy a put and a call further…
From the book library
All 67 reviews
Psychology
Fooled by Randomness
Recommended — about bias, probability and luck; newer traders should read it twice.
Interviews
Unknown Market Wizards
I enjoyed it and recommend it; fans of earlier Market Wizards books will be eager.
Psychology
Trading in the Zone
There are more good insights; I recommend it if you want to trade in the zone.
Systematic Trading
Stocks on the Move
An educational read if you want to study systematic momentum trading in stocks.
Lessons Learned
All 35 lessonsDrawdowns are like scars showing that we have survived
Drawdowns are an inevitable part of taking risk; surviving them within expected ranges is nothing to regret.
Every trading strategy has drawdowns
Accounts are in drawdown most of the time; know your strategy's expected distribution and stick with it.
Focus on process, not results
Market outcomes are random; follow your trading plan and judge the process rather than individual results.
Live to fight another day
Take small losses to preserve capital so you can make big profits when the right time comes.
Cut losses quickly, let profits run
Respect your plan's profit targets, and exit losing trades quickly; re-entry is only a commission away.
About
I read the chart, and the chart tells me where I’m wrong.
About ten years in the markets, trading US stocks, options, futures, forex and crypto. The tools, the tests and the mistakes are all on this blog.