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Risk reward ratio: Why it means nothing without the win rate
The risk reward ratio compares what a trade can lose, from the entry to the stop, with what it can make, from the entry to the target. Risk $1 to…
Stocks. Options. Futures.
Trader Markus
A trader’s notes on US stocks, options, futures, forex and crypto: technical analysis, risk management and trading psychology, with the stops and targets shown.
The Setup Lab · leaderboard Classic chart signals, backtested on real daily data. Ranked by how each did against simply holding the same market.
- 1 Fibonacci 61.8% bounceEUR/USD · 2004–2026 1.5%Per year −0.4%Buy & hold 57%Win rate −10%Max drawdown
- 2 Golden crossS&P 500 · 1970–2026 7.5%Per year 8.4%Buy & hold 81%Win rate −34%Max drawdown
- 3 20-day breakoutBitcoin · 2014–2026 53.9%Per year 58.7%Buy & hold 44%Win rate −57%Max drawdown
Long only, no costs, signals on the close, trades at the next close. Past results don’t predict future ones. All tests and the method
Weekly levels · week of Oct 12, 2026
The levels I’m watching this week
S&P 500, Bitcoin, gold and EUR/USD: the trend, two supports and two resistances, and what would change the picture. Last week’s levels are scored in public.
See this week’s levels- S&P 5007,812UptrendR17,845S17,794
- Bitcoin83,681UptrendR185,000S182,571
- Gold4,216.3DowntrendR14,273.3S14,171.4
- EUR/USD1.1213DowntrendR11.1276S11.1162
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Blog
Bitcoin halving dates 2012, 2016, 2020, 2024: What came next
Bitcoin has had four halvings: 28 November 2012, 9 July 2016, 11 May 2020 and 20 April 2024. After each one the price peaked 371 to 546 days later…
Blog
How do prop firms make money? A coin-flipper’s $50K challenge
Prop firms make most of their money from challenge fees, not from trading. At Topstep, even the funded account you earn by passing is simulated – the…
Blog
Fair value gap (FVG): A test on 26 years of S&P 500 data
A fair value gap (FVG) is a three-candle pattern: the first candle’s high and the third candle’s low don’t overlap, and the empty space between them…
Blog
S&P 500 200-day moving average: What 76 years of data show
On Friday, 9 October 2026, the S&P 500 closed at 7,811.54, about 7.7% above its 200-day moving average of roughly 7,251. It has closed above the line…
Blog
Iron condor: What 38 years of S&P 500 data say about it
An iron condor is four options with the same expiry: you sell an out-of-the-money put and an out-of-the-money call, and buy a put and a call further…
Blog
Risk reward ratio: Why it means nothing without the win rate
The risk reward ratio compares what a trade can lose, from the entry to the stop, with what it can make, from the entry to the target. Risk $1 to…
From the book library
All 67 reviews
Psychology
Fooled by Randomness
Recommended — about bias, probability and luck; newer traders should read it twice.
Interviews
Unknown Market Wizards
I enjoyed it and recommend it; fans of earlier Market Wizards books will be eager.
Psychology
Trading in the Zone
There are more good insights; I recommend it if you want to trade in the zone.
Systematic Trading
Stocks on the Move
An educational read if you want to study systematic momentum trading in stocks.
Lessons Learned
All 35 lessonsDrawdowns are like scars showing that we have survived
Drawdowns are an inevitable part of taking risk; surviving them within expected ranges is nothing to regret.
Every trading strategy has drawdowns
Accounts are in drawdown most of the time; know your strategy's expected distribution and stick with it.
Focus on process, not results
Market outcomes are random; follow your trading plan and judge the process rather than individual results.
Live to fight another day
Take small losses to preserve capital so you can make big profits when the right time comes.
Cut losses quickly, let profits run
Respect your plan's profit targets, and exit losing trades quickly; re-entry is only a commission away.
About
I read the chart, and the chart tells me where I’m wrong.
About ten years in the markets, trading US stocks, options, futures, forex and crypto. The tools, the tests and the mistakes are all on this blog.