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Cup and handle pattern: The rules and a real breakout
A cup and handle is a bullish continuation pattern: after a rise, the price builds a rounded, U-shaped base (the cup), pulls back a little near the…
Stocks. Options. Futures.
Trader Markus
A trader’s notes on US stocks, options, futures, forex and crypto: technical analysis, risk management and trading psychology, with the stops and targets shown.
The Setup Lab · leaderboard Classic chart signals, backtested on real daily data. Ranked by how each did against simply holding the same market.
- 1 Fibonacci 61.8% bounceEUR/USD · 2004–2026 1.5%Per year −0.4%Buy & hold 57%Win rate −10%Max drawdown
- 2 Ichimoku cloudEUR/USD · 2004–2026 −0.41%Per year −0.44%Buy & hold 32%Win rate −28%Max drawdown
- 3 Golden crossS&P 500 · 1970–2026 7.5%Per year 8.4%Buy & hold 81%Win rate −34%Max drawdown
Long only, no costs, signals on the close, trades at the next close. Past results don’t predict future ones. All tests and the method
Weekly levels · week of Nov 2, 2026
The levels I’m watching this week
S&P 500, Bitcoin, gold and EUR/USD: the trend, two supports and two resistances, and what would change the picture. Last week’s levels are scored in public.
See this week’s levels- S&P 5007,580MixedR17,611S17,528
- Bitcoin78,225MixedR179,736S176,190
- Gold3,898.9DowntrendR13,955.4S13,879.3
- EUR/USD1.1183DowntrendR11.1227S11.1110
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Blog
Midterm elections and the stock market: What 19 midterms since 1950 show
The US midterm elections are on Tuesday, 3 November 2026. I looked at what the S&P 500 did after every midterm since 1950. Twelve months after the…
Blog
Bitcoin 200-day moving average: What 11 years of data show
Bitcoin’s 200-day moving average was $73,115 on 30 October 2026, and Bitcoin closed 5.6% above it. Since April 2015 it has closed above the line on…
Blog
Max pain options: Does the price really pin at expiry? I tested it
Max pain is the strike price where option holders would collect the least at expiry, and the theory says the stock gets pulled toward it before…
Blog
How much do day traders make? What real account data shows
Most day traders make nothing. They lose money. In one large study of real accounts, 97% of Brazilians who day traded futures for at least 300 days…
Blog
Keltner channel: I tested it on the S&P 500 and Bitcoin
A Keltner channel is a 20-day exponential moving average with a line two average true ranges above it and two below. I tested it on 56 years of S&P…
Blog
Cup and handle pattern: The rules and a real breakout
A cup and handle is a bullish continuation pattern: after a rise, the price builds a rounded, U-shaped base (the cup), pulls back a little near the…
From the book library
All 70 reviews
Psychology
Fooled by Randomness
Recommended — about bias, probability and luck; newer traders should read it twice.
Interviews
Unknown Market Wizards
I enjoyed it and recommend it; fans of earlier Market Wizards books will be eager.
Psychology
Trading in the Zone
There are more good insights; I recommend it if you want to trade in the zone.
Systematic Trading
Stocks on the Move
An educational read if you want to study systematic momentum trading in stocks.
Lessons Learned
All 35 lessonsDrawdowns are like scars showing that we have survived
Drawdowns are an inevitable part of taking risk; surviving them within expected ranges is nothing to regret.
Every trading strategy has drawdowns
Accounts are in drawdown most of the time; know your strategy's expected distribution and stick with it.
Focus on process, not results
Market outcomes are random; follow your trading plan and judge the process rather than individual results.
Live to fight another day
Take small losses to preserve capital so you can make big profits when the right time comes.
Cut losses quickly, let profits run
Respect your plan's profit targets, and exit losing trades quickly; re-entry is only a commission away.
About
I read the chart, and the chart tells me where I’m wrong.
About ten years in the markets, trading US stocks, options, futures, forex and crypto. The tools, the tests and the mistakes are all on this blog.