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Inside bar: What a breakout test on the S&P 500 shows
An inside bar is a bar whose high is lower and whose low is higher than the bar before it, so the whole day fits inside the previous one. Traders…
Stocks. Options. Futures.
Trader Markus
A trader’s notes on US stocks, options, futures, forex and crypto: technical analysis, risk management and trading psychology, with the stops and targets shown.
The Setup Lab · leaderboard Classic chart signals, backtested on real daily data. Ranked by how each did against simply holding the same market.
- 1 Fibonacci 61.8% bounceEUR/USD · 2004–2026 1.5%Per year −0.4%Buy & hold 57%Win rate −10%Max drawdown
- 2 Ichimoku cloudEUR/USD · 2004–2026 −0.41%Per year −0.44%Buy & hold 32%Win rate −28%Max drawdown
- 3 Golden crossS&P 500 · 1970–2026 7.5%Per year 8.4%Buy & hold 81%Win rate −34%Max drawdown
Long only, no costs, signals on the close, trades at the next close. Past results don’t predict future ones. All tests and the method
Weekly levels · week of Oct 19, 2026
The levels I’m watching this week
S&P 500, Bitcoin, gold and EUR/USD: the trend, two supports and two resistances, and what would change the picture. Last week’s levels are scored in public.
See this week’s levels- S&P 5007,659MixedR17,700S17,632
- Bitcoin81,989UptrendR182,571S181,347
- Gold4,181.1DowntrendR14,242.3S14,143.1
- EUR/USD1.1213DowntrendR11.1270S11.1114
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Blog
S&P 500 average return: What 98 years of data really show
The S&P 500’s average return since 1928 is about 10% a year with dividends reinvested: 10.0% compounded over 98 calendar years, 1928–2025. Without…
Blog
Sequence of returns risk: Why your retirement date matters
Sequence of returns risk is the danger that bad years come at the start of retirement, while you are taking money out. I ran it on real S&P 500 data…
Blog
Buy the dip: What 38 years of S&P 500 data say
Buying the dip means keeping cash aside and investing it when the market falls. I tested it on the S&P 500 with dividends since 1989: $500 a month…
Blog
Bollinger Bands: What 56 years of S&P 500, gold and Bitcoin data show
Bollinger Bands are a 20-day moving average with a band two standard deviations above and below it. I tested John Bollinger’s own rules on the S&P…
Blog
Bitcoin death cross: What all 10 since 2015 did next
Bitcoin has had 10 death crosses since 2015, the days its 50-day moving average fell below the 200-day. A year later the price was higher after 5 of…
Blog
Inside bar: What a breakout test on the S&P 500 shows
An inside bar is a bar whose high is lower and whose low is higher than the bar before it, so the whole day fits inside the previous one. Traders…
From the book library
All 68 reviews
Psychology
Fooled by Randomness
Recommended — about bias, probability and luck; newer traders should read it twice.
Interviews
Unknown Market Wizards
I enjoyed it and recommend it; fans of earlier Market Wizards books will be eager.
Psychology
Trading in the Zone
There are more good insights; I recommend it if you want to trade in the zone.
Systematic Trading
Stocks on the Move
An educational read if you want to study systematic momentum trading in stocks.
Lessons Learned
All 35 lessonsDrawdowns are like scars showing that we have survived
Drawdowns are an inevitable part of taking risk; surviving them within expected ranges is nothing to regret.
Every trading strategy has drawdowns
Accounts are in drawdown most of the time; know your strategy's expected distribution and stick with it.
Focus on process, not results
Market outcomes are random; follow your trading plan and judge the process rather than individual results.
Live to fight another day
Take small losses to preserve capital so you can make big profits when the right time comes.
Cut losses quickly, let profits run
Respect your plan's profit targets, and exit losing trades quickly; re-entry is only a commission away.
About
I read the chart, and the chart tells me where I’m wrong.
About ten years in the markets, trading US stocks, options, futures, forex and crypto. The tools, the tests and the mistakes are all on this blog.