Trader Markus
A trader’s notes on US stocks, options, futures, forex and crypto: technical analysis, risk management and trading psychology, with the stops and targets shown.
- 1 Fibonacci 61.8% bounceEUR/USD · 2004–2026 1.5%Per year −0.4%Buy & hold 57%Win rate −10%Max drawdown
- 2 Ichimoku cloudEUR/USD · 2004–2026 −0.41%Per year −0.44%Buy & hold 32%Win rate −28%Max drawdown
- 3 Golden crossS&P 500 · 1970–2026 7.5%Per year 8.4%Buy & hold 81%Win rate −34%Max drawdown
The levels I’m watching this week
S&P 500, Bitcoin, gold and EUR/USD: the trend, two supports and two resistances, and what would change the picture. Last week’s levels are scored in public.
See this week’s levels- S&P 5007,377MixedR17,422S17,334
- Bitcoin74,725MixedR176,248S173,591
- Gold4,074.9DowntrendR14,100.0S14,046.2
- EUR/USD1.1228DowntrendR11.1275S11.1200
Latest writing
All posts
EMA vs SMA: Which moving average works better? I tested both
An EMA weights recent prices more, so it turns faster than an SMA of the same length. I tested both as a simple trend rule on the S&P 500 since 1988…
60/40 portfolio: What 98 years of stocks and bonds show
A 60/40 portfolio holds 60% stocks and 40% bonds and is rebalanced back to that mix. With the S&P 500 and 10-year Treasury bonds, rebalanced every…
Sharpe ratio: What a good one looks like on real data
The Sharpe ratio is the return you earned above cash, divided by how much the returns swung. Holding the S&P 500 with dividends since 1988 has given…
Head and shoulders pattern: I tested 70 of them
The head and shoulders is the best-known reversal pattern in technical analysis: three peaks, the middle one highest, and a break of the neckline is…
Doji candle: What 12 years of S&P 500 and Bitcoin data show
A doji candle is a day that closes almost exactly where it opened. Textbooks call it indecision and say that after a rally it can warn of a turn. I…
From the book library
All 72 reviews
Fooled by Randomness
Recommended — about bias, probability and luck; newer traders should read it twice.
Unknown Market Wizards
I enjoyed it and recommend it; fans of earlier Market Wizards books will be eager.
Trading in the Zone
There are more good insights; I recommend it if you want to trade in the zone.
Stocks on the Move
An educational read if you want to study systematic momentum trading in stocks.
Lessons Learned
All 35 lessonsDrawdowns are like scars showing that we have survived
Drawdowns are an inevitable part of taking risk; surviving them within expected ranges is nothing to regret.
Every trading strategy has drawdowns
Accounts are in drawdown most of the time; know your strategy's expected distribution and stick with it.
Focus on process, not results
Market outcomes are random; follow your trading plan and judge the process rather than individual results.
Live to fight another day
Take small losses to preserve capital so you can make big profits when the right time comes.
Cut losses quickly, let profits run
Respect your plan's profit targets, and exit losing trades quickly; re-entry is only a commission away.
I read the chart, and the chart tells me where I’m wrong.
About ten years in the markets, trading US stocks, options, futures, forex and crypto. The tools, the tests and the mistakes are all on this blog.