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Covered call: What 24 years of S&P 500 data say about it
A covered call means you own 100 shares and sell someone the right to buy them from you at a fixed price, for a fee you keep. It turns some of a…
Stocks. Options. Futures.
Trader Markus
A trader’s notes on US stocks, options, futures, forex and crypto: technical analysis, risk management and trading psychology, with the stops and targets shown.
The Setup Lab · leaderboard Classic chart signals, backtested on real daily data. Ranked by how each did against simply holding the same market.
- 1 Fibonacci 61.8% bounceEUR/USD · 2004–2026 1.5%Per year −0.4%Buy & hold 57%Win rate −10%Max drawdown
- 2 Golden crossS&P 500 · 1970–2026 7.5%Per year 8.4%Buy & hold 81%Win rate −34%Max drawdown
- 3 MACD crossoverGold · 2000–2026 4.3%Per year 11.3%Buy & hold 48%Win rate −32%Max drawdown
Long only, no costs, signals on the close, trades at the next close. Past results don’t predict future ones. All tests and the method
Weekly levels · week of Sep 28, 2026
The levels I’m watching this week
S&P 500, Bitcoin, gold and EUR/USD: the trend, two supports and two resistances, and what would change the picture. Last week’s levels are scored in public.
See this week’s levels- S&P 5007,743UptrendR17,782S17,700
- Bitcoin84,462UptrendR187,364S182,262
- Gold4,321.2DowntrendR14,363.5S14,278.3
- EUR/USD1.1375DowntrendR11.1400S11.1360
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Blog
Worst month for stocks: What 55 years of S&P 500 data show
September is the worst month for stocks. From 1971 to 2025 the S&P 500 lost 0.90% in an average September and closed the month higher in only 44% of…
Blog
Is day trading gambling? What the numbers actually say
For most people who try it, day trading works like gambling: the expected result after costs is a loss. Two large studies of real accounts say so. In…
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Death cross in stocks: What 27 S&P 500 signals since 1971 show
A death cross is when the 50-day moving average of a stock or index closes below its 200-day moving average. It sounds like the end of the world, and…
Blog
Bitcoin 200-week moving average: What 8 years of data show
Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average is at about $65,500: the average of the last 200 weekly closes, up to the week that ended on 20 September 2026…
Blog
Covered call: What 24 years of S&P 500 data say about it
A covered call means you own 100 shares and sell someone the right to buy them from you at a fixed price, for a fee you keep. It turns some of a…
From the book library
All 66 reviews
Psychology
Fooled by Randomness
Recommended — about bias, probability and luck; newer traders should read it twice.
Interviews
Unknown Market Wizards
I enjoyed it and recommend it; fans of earlier Market Wizards books will be eager.
Psychology
Trading in the Zone
There are more good insights; I recommend it if you want to trade in the zone.
Systematic Trading
Stocks on the Move
An educational read if you want to study systematic momentum trading in stocks.
Lessons Learned
All 35 lessonsDrawdowns are like scars showing that we have survived
Drawdowns are an inevitable part of taking risk; surviving them within expected ranges is nothing to regret.
Every trading strategy has drawdowns
Accounts are in drawdown most of the time; know your strategy's expected distribution and stick with it.
Focus on process, not results
Market outcomes are random; follow your trading plan and judge the process rather than individual results.
Live to fight another day
Take small losses to preserve capital so you can make big profits when the right time comes.
Cut losses quickly, let profits run
Respect your plan's profit targets, and exit losing trades quickly; re-entry is only a commission away.
About
I read the chart, and the chart tells me where I’m wrong.
About ten years in the markets, trading US stocks, options, futures, forex and crypto. The tools, the tests and the mistakes are all on this blog.