Trader Markus
A trader’s notes on US stocks, options, futures, forex and crypto: technical analysis, risk management and trading psychology, with the stops and targets shown.
- 1 Fibonacci 61.8% bounceEUR/USD · 2004–2026 1.5%Per year −0.4%Buy & hold 57%Win rate −10%Max drawdown
- 2 Golden crossS&P 500 · 1970–2026 7.5%Per year 8.4%Buy & hold 81%Win rate −34%Max drawdown
- 3 MACD crossoverGold · 2000–2026 4.3%Per year 11.3%Buy & hold 48%Win rate −32%Max drawdown
The levels I’m watching this week
S&P 500, Bitcoin, gold and EUR/USD: the trend, two supports and two resistances, and what would change the picture. Last week’s levels are scored in public.
See this week’s levels- S&P 5007,743UptrendR17,782S17,700
- Bitcoin84,462UptrendR187,364S182,262
- Gold4,321.2DowntrendR14,363.5S14,278.3
- EUR/USD1.1375DowntrendR11.1400S11.1360
Latest writing
All posts
Death cross in stocks: What 27 S&P 500 signals since 1971 show
A death cross is when the 50-day moving average of a stock or index closes below its 200-day moving average. It sounds like the end of the world, and…
Bitcoin 200-week moving average: What 8 years of data show
Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average is at about $65,500: the average of the last 200 weekly closes, up to the week that ended on 20 September 2026…
RSI divergence: What 20 years of S&P 500 data say about it
RSI divergence is when price and the Relative Strength Index disagree: price makes a higher high while RSI makes a lower high (bearish), or price…
Stop loss trading: Where to put the stop and how much to buy
A stop loss in trading is the price where you admit the trade idea was wrong and get out. Put it where the chart says the idea is broken – below the…
From the book library
All 65 reviews
Fooled by Randomness
Recommended — about bias, probability and luck; newer traders should read it twice.
Unknown Market Wizards
I enjoyed it and recommend it; fans of earlier Market Wizards books will be eager.
Trading in the Zone
There are more good insights; I recommend it if you want to trade in the zone.
Stocks on the Move
An educational read if you want to study systematic momentum trading in stocks.
Lessons Learned
All 35 lessonsDrawdowns are like scars showing that we have survived
Drawdowns are an inevitable part of taking risk; surviving them within expected ranges is nothing to regret.
Every trading strategy has drawdowns
Accounts are in drawdown most of the time; know your strategy's expected distribution and stick with it.
Focus on process, not results
Market outcomes are random; follow your trading plan and judge the process rather than individual results.
Live to fight another day
Take small losses to preserve capital so you can make big profits when the right time comes.
Cut losses quickly, let profits run
Respect your plan's profit targets, and exit losing trades quickly; re-entry is only a commission away.
I read the chart, and the chart tells me where I’m wrong.
About ten years in the markets, trading US stocks, options, futures, forex and crypto. The tools, the tests and the mistakes are all on this blog.