Stocks. Options. Futures.

The Setup Lab

Every trader has heard that a golden cross is bullish and an RSI under 30 is a buy. Here I test those signals one at a time, on real daily data going back as far as it goes, with the same scorecard every time. No cherry-picked charts.

3 tests so far
  1. 1 Golden crossS&P 500 · 1970–2026 7.5%Per year 8.4%Buy & hold 81%Win rate −34%Max drawdown
  2. 2 MACD crossoverGold · 2000–2026 4.3%Per year 11.3%Buy & hold 48%Win rate −32%Max drawdown
  3. 3 RSI under 30Bitcoin · 2014–2026 14.4%Per year 57.5%Buy & hold 71%Win rate −67%Max drawdown
Long only, no costs, signals on the close, trades at the next close. Past results don’t predict future ones. All tests and the method

All tests

Test 3 · Gold · Sep 23, 2026

The MACD crossover on gold

Buy when the MACD line (12-day EMA minus 26-day EMA) closes above its 9-day signal line. 264 trades, 48% winners, 4.3% a year against 11.3% for buy-and-hold.

Test 2 · Bitcoin · Sep 23, 2026

Buying Bitcoin when RSI drops under 30

Buy when the 14-day RSI closes below 30 (the textbook “oversold” line). 21 trades, 71% winners, 14.4% a year against 57.5% for buy-and-hold.

Test 1 · S&P 500 · Sep 23, 2026

The golden cross on the S&P 500: 56 years of data

Buy when the 50-day moving average closes above the 200-day moving average (the golden cross). 27 trades, 81% winners, 7.5% a year against 8.4% for buy-and-hold.

How every test is run

  • One signal, one market, long only. Fully in or fully out, cash in between.
  • No look-ahead. The signal is read on a day’s close; the trade happens at the next day’s close.
  • No costs. No commissions, slippage, interest or dividends. Real trading would do worse, more so for busy signals.
  • Same period for the benchmark. Buy-and-hold is measured over exactly the days the test covers.
  • Re-runnable. Prices are daily data from Yahoo Finance, saved as a dated snapshot. Every test is checked by a second, independent program before it goes up.

Not financial advice. This is educational content, shared for information and entertainment only, and it is not a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Backtests and past results do not guarantee future results, and the numbers or charts here may contain mistakes. Trading carries risk, including losing all the money you put in. Do your own research before you make any decision.