An RSI under 30 is the textbook definition of “oversold”, and “buy when it’s oversold” is probably the first rule anyone learns about Bitcoin. The textbook also tells you to sell when RSI goes over 70.
I ran exactly that on Bitcoin’s daily closes since 2014: 21 closed trades.
The rules
- Buy when the 14-day RSI closes below 30 (the textbook “oversold” line).
- Sell when the 14-day RSI closes above 70 (the textbook “overbought” line).
- Wilder’s RSI on the daily close. Long only; in cash between trades.
Market: Bitcoin in US dollars (BTC-USD), trades every day.
The result
| RSI under 30 | Buy-and-hold | |
|---|---|---|
| Annual return | 14.39% | 57.48% |
| Total return | 400% | 22875% |
| Max drawdown | −67.0% | −83.4% |
| Worst fall, from – to | May 2021 – Nov 2022 | Dec 2017 – Dec 2018 |
| Time in the market | 42% | 100% |
| Trades | Value |
|---|---|
| Closed trades | 21 |
| Winners | 15 (71.4%) |
| Average winner | +24.59% |
| Average loser | −21.33% |
| Win/loss ratio | 1.15 |
| Profit factor | 2.88 |
| Best / worst trade | +73.2% / −39.2% |
| Average holding time | 87 days |
My read
Most trades worked: 71% winners, average winner 24.6%. The trouble is the losers. They averaged a 21.3% loss, because nothing in the rule says “you were wrong”. The worst one bought in May 2022 and only saw RSI 70 again in Jan 2023, 247 days later, when it sold for a 39% loss.
Over the whole period it made 14.4% a year. Holding Bitcoin made 57.5% a year. It was in the market 42% of the days, and it still had a 67% fall, against 83% for holding.
“Oversold” describes the past two weeks. It says nothing about the next two. In a strong downtrend RSI can sit under 30 for a long time, and a rule with no stop has to sit there with it.
My read: RSI under 30 on its own is not a setup. At most it is a reason to look at the chart, and the chart has to give you the stop.
Every trade
21 closed trades, newest first
| Bought | Price | Sold | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-15 | 95,549 | 2026-08-20 | 73,033 | −23.6% |
| 2025-02-27 | 84,704 | 2025-05-03 | 95,892 | +13.2% |
| 2024-06-25 | 61,805 | 2024-10-21 | 67,368 | +9.0% |
| 2023-08-18 | 26,050 | 2023-10-21 | 29,918 | +14.9% |
| 2023-03-10 | 20,187 | 2023-03-18 | 26,966 | +33.6% |
| 2022-05-10 | 31,023 | 2023-01-12 | 18,870 | −39.2% |
| 2021-12-11 | 49,363 | 2022-03-30 | 47,063 | −4.7% |
| 2021-04-26 | 54,022 | 2021-07-29 | 40,008 | −25.9% |
| 2020-03-13 | 5,564 | 2020-04-30 | 8,659 | +55.6% |
| 2019-09-25 | 8,487 | 2020-01-15 | 8,807 | +3.8% |
| 2018-11-15 | 5,648 | 2019-02-20 | 4,000 | −29.2% |
| 2018-05-29 | 7,473 | 2018-07-24 | 8,424 | +12.7% |
| 2018-02-06 | 7,754 | 2018-04-25 | 8,846 | +14.1% |
| 2017-09-15 | 3,638 | 2017-10-13 | 5,647 | +55.2% |
| 2017-07-16 | 1,930 | 2017-08-09 | 3,342 | +73.2% |
| 2016-08-03 | 566 | 2016-10-12 | 636 | +12.3% |
| 2016-01-16 | 388 | 2016-04-21 | 449 | +16.0% |
| 2015-08-19 | 227 | 2015-10-16 | 263 | +16.0% |
| 2015-04-15 | 224 | 2015-06-17 | 249 | +11.4% |
| 2014-12-18 | 311 | 2015-03-12 | 294 | −5.5% |
| 2014-10-04 | 329 | 2014-11-13 | 421 | +27.9% |
How it was tested
- Signals are read on the daily close; each trade happens at the next day’s close. No look-ahead.
- Long only, fully in or fully out. No commissions, slippage, interest or dividends.
- The test starts on the first day every indicator has a value (Oct 2, 2014); buy-and-hold covers the same days.
- Prices: Yahoo Finance daily data (BTC-USD), snapshot
btc-2026-09-23.csv. Checked by a second, independent program before publishing.
Not financial advice. This is educational content, shared for information and entertainment only, and it is not a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Backtests and past results do not guarantee future results, and the numbers or charts here may contain mistakes. Trading carries risk, including losing all the money you put in. Do your own research before you make any decision.