4.3%Per year
−32.4%Max drawdown
48.5%Win rate
264Trades
MACD crossover on Gold, 2000–2026 · buy-and-hold over the same days: 11.3% a year, max drawdown −44.4%
The MACD crossover is the signal every charting platform draws by default: two lines, and a trade every time they cross. On gold it gets posted a lot, because gold trends.
I tested the standard 12/26/9 settings on gold futures since 2000: 264 closed trades.
The rules
- Buy when the MACD line (12-day EMA minus 26-day EMA) closes above its 9-day signal line.
- Sell when the MACD line closes back below the signal line.
- Standard 12/26/9 settings on the daily close. Long only; in cash between trades.
Market: Gold futures, continuous front month (GC=F); contract rolls can leave small price jumps.
The result
| MACD crossover | Buy-and-hold | |
|---|---|---|
| Annual return | 4.29% | 11.34% |
| Total return | 197% | 1520% |
| Max drawdown | −32.4% | −44.4% |
| Worst fall, from – to | Jan 2008 – Nov 2008 | Aug 2011 – Dec 2015 |
| Time in the market | 52% | 100% |
| Trades | Value |
|---|---|
| Closed trades | 264 |
| Winners | 128 (48.5%) |
| Average winner | +3.37% |
| Average loser | −2.22% |
| Win/loss ratio | 1.52 |
| Profit factor | 1.43 |
| Best / worst trade | +20.2% / −9.8% |
| Average holding time | 13 sessions |
My read
This is a busy signal. 264 trades in 26 years, about 10 a year, held 13 trading days on average. Fewer than half won (48%), but the average winner (3.4%) was bigger than the average loser (−2.2%), so the trades added up to a profit.
Not much of one. It made 4.3% a year while holding gold made 11.3% a year. The worst fall was 32%, against 44% for holding. And this is before costs: with 10 round trips a year, commissions and slippage would take a real bite.
My read: a raw MACD cross is too quick for a market like gold. It chops in and out of every pullback and misses much of the big trend. As momentum confirmation it has its place; as a stand-alone rule, no.
Every trade
264 closed trades, newest first
| Bought | Price | Sold | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | 4,157.4 | 2026-09-01 | 4,396.4 | +5.7% |
| 2026-06-18 | 4,245.9 | 2026-06-23 | 4,149.4 | −2.3% |
| 2026-05-08 | 4,730.7 | 2026-05-19 | 4,511.2 | −4.6% |
| 2026-04-06 | 4,684.7 | 2026-04-29 | 4,561.5 | −2.6% |
| 2026-02-26 | 5,194.2 | 2026-03-04 | 5,134.7 | −1.1% |
| 2026-01-13 | 4,599.1 | 2026-02-03 | 4,935.0 | +7.3% |
| 2025-11-28 | 4,254.9 | 2025-12-31 | 4,341.1 | +2.0% |
| 2025-11-13 | 4,194.5 | 2025-11-18 | 4,066.5 | −3.1% |
| 2025-08-27 | 3,448.6 | 2025-10-23 | 4,145.6 | +20.2% |
| 2025-08-05 | 3,434.7 | 2025-08-18 | 3,378.0 | −1.7% |
| 2025-07-21 | 3,406.4 | 2025-07-29 | 3,324.0 | −2.4% |
| 2025-06-13 | 3,452.8 | 2025-06-20 | 3,385.7 | −1.9% |
| 2025-06-03 | 3,377.1 | 2025-06-11 | 3,343.7 | −1.0% |
| 2025-05-27 | 3,300.4 | 2025-05-28 | 3,294.9 | −0.2% |
| 2025-04-14 | 3,226.3 | 2025-05-01 | 3,222.2 | −0.1% |
| 2025-03-17 | 3,006.1 | 2025-04-08 | 2,990.2 | −0.5% |
| 2025-01-06 | 2,647.4 | 2025-02-26 | 2,930.6 | +10.7% |
| 2024-12-02 | 2,658.5 | 2024-12-19 | 2,608.1 | −1.9% |
| 2024-11-25 | 2,618.5 | 2024-11-26 | 2,621.3 | +0.1% |
| 2024-10-21 | 2,738.9 | 2024-11-04 | 2,746.2 | +0.3% |
| 2024-09-16 | 2,608.9 | 2024-10-07 | 2,666.0 | +2.2% |
| 2024-08-02 | 2,469.8 | 2024-09-03 | 2,523.0 | +2.2% |
| 2024-07-05 | 2,397.7 | 2024-07-25 | 2,353.5 | −1.8% |
| 2024-05-17 | 2,417.4 | 2024-05-24 | 2,334.5 | −3.4% |
| 2024-04-01 | 2,257.1 | 2024-04-23 | 2,342.1 | +3.8% |
| 2024-03-22 | 2,160.0 | 2024-03-25 | 2,176.4 | +0.8% |
| 2024-02-26 | 2,038.9 | 2024-03-21 | 2,184.7 | +7.2% |
| 2024-02-01 | 2,071.1 | 2024-02-14 | 2,004.3 | −3.2% |
| 2023-12-22 | 2,069.1 | 2024-01-04 | 2,050.0 | −0.9% |
| 2023-11-23 | 1,993.3 | 2023-12-11 | 1,993.7 | +0.0% |
| 2023-10-13 | 1,941.5 | 2023-11-08 | 1,957.8 | +0.8% |
| 2023-09-20 | 1,967.1 | 2023-09-26 | 1,919.8 | −2.4% |
| 2023-08-29 | 1,965.1 | 2023-09-13 | 1,932.5 | −1.7% |
| 2023-07-10 | 1,931.0 | 2023-08-09 | 1,950.6 | +1.0% |
| 2023-06-09 | 1,977.2 | 2023-06-21 | 1,944.9 | −1.6% |
| 2023-06-07 | 1,958.4 | 2023-06-08 | 1,978.6 | +1.0% |
| 2023-05-10 | 2,037.1 | 2023-05-12 | 2,019.8 | −0.8% |
| 2023-05-05 | 2,024.8 | 2023-05-08 | 2,033.2 | +0.4% |
| 2023-03-13 | 1,916.5 | 2023-04-18 | 2,019.7 | +5.4% |
| 2023-03-07 | 1,820.0 | 2023-03-08 | 1,818.6 | −0.1% |
| 2023-01-05 | 1,840.6 | 2023-01-31 | 1,929.5 | +4.8% |
| 2022-12-02 | 1,809.6 | 2022-12-16 | 1,800.2 | −0.5% |
| 2022-11-07 | 1,680.5 | 2022-11-29 | 1,748.4 | +4.0% |
| 2022-10-27 | 1,665.6 | 2022-11-04 | 1,676.6 | +0.7% |
| 2022-10-03 | 1,702.0 | 2022-10-17 | 1,664.0 | −2.2% |
| 2022-07-25 | 1,719.1 | 2022-08-22 | 1,748.4 | +1.7% |
| 2022-06-17 | 1,840.6 | 2022-06-28 | 1,821.2 | −1.1% |
| 2022-05-24 | 1,865.4 | 2022-06-16 | 1,849.9 | −0.8% |
| 2022-04-13 | 1,984.7 | 2022-04-22 | 1,934.3 | −2.5% |
| 2022-02-10 | 1,837.4 | 2022-03-16 | 1,909.2 | +3.9% |
| 2022-01-12 | 1,827.3 | 2022-01-28 | 1,784.9 | −2.3% |
| 2021-12-20 | 1,794.6 | 2022-01-10 | 1,798.8 | +0.2% |
| 2021-11-08 | 1,828.0 | 2021-11-23 | 1,783.8 | −2.4% |
| 2021-10-06 | 1,761.8 | 2021-11-04 | 1,793.5 | +1.8% |
| 2021-08-18 | 1,784.4 | 2021-09-13 | 1,794.4 | +0.6% |
| 2021-07-08 | 1,800.2 | 2021-08-09 | 1,726.5 | −4.1% |
| 2021-03-15 | 1,729.2 | 2021-06-04 | 1,892.0 | +9.4% |
| 2020-12-07 | 1,866.0 | 2021-01-11 | 1,850.8 | −0.8% |
| 2020-11-05 | 1,946.8 | 2020-11-11 | 1,861.6 | −4.4% |
| 2020-10-12 | 1,928.9 | 2020-10-29 | 1,868.0 | −3.2% |
| 2020-10-06 | 1,908.8 | 2020-10-08 | 1,895.1 | −0.7% |
| 2020-07-22 | 1,865.1 | 2020-08-13 | 1,970.4 | +5.6% |
| 2020-06-17 | 1,735.6 | 2020-07-17 | 1,810.0 | +4.3% |
| 2020-05-18 | 1,731.8 | 2020-05-22 | 1,734.6 | +0.2% |
| 2020-03-26 | 1,650.1 | 2020-04-28 | 1,710.5 | +3.7% |
| 2020-03-06 | 1,670.8 | 2020-03-13 | 1,515.7 | −9.3% |
| 2020-02-19 | 1,607.5 | 2020-03-02 | 1,592.3 | −0.9% |
| 2020-02-03 | 1,577.2 | 2020-02-04 | 1,550.4 | −1.7% |
| 2020-01-28 | 1,569.2 | 2020-01-29 | 1,569.8 | +0.0% |
| 2019-12-03 | 1,478.2 | 2020-01-22 | 1,555.3 | +5.2% |
| 2019-10-25 | 1,499.5 | 2019-11-08 | 1,461.3 | −2.5% |
| 2019-08-28 | 1,537.8 | 2019-08-30 | 1,519.1 | −1.2% |
| 2019-08-06 | 1,472.4 | 2019-08-22 | 1,497.3 | +1.7% |
| 2019-05-31 | 1,305.8 | 2019-07-08 | 1,397.0 | +7.0% |
| 2019-05-01 | 1,281.4 | 2019-05-22 | 1,273.6 | −0.6% |
| 2019-04-11 | 1,288.6 | 2019-04-15 | 1,286.8 | −0.1% |
| 2019-03-21 | 1,306.1 | 2019-04-01 | 1,288.4 | −1.4% |
| 2019-02-20 | 1,343.3 | 2019-02-27 | 1,317.7 | −1.9% |
| 2019-01-30 | 1,309.9 | 2019-02-08 | 1,313.7 | +0.3% |
| 2018-11-30 | 1,220.2 | 2019-01-15 | 1,286.2 | +5.4% |
| 2018-11-26 | 1,220.2 | 2018-11-28 | 1,221.4 | +0.1% |
| 2018-10-12 | 1,218.1 | 2018-11-01 | 1,236.0 | +1.5% |
| 2018-10-03 | 1,198.3 | 2018-10-10 | 1,189.3 | −0.8% |
| 2018-08-23 | 1,187.0 | 2018-09-28 | 1,191.5 | +0.4% |
| 2018-07-26 | 1,225.3 | 2018-08-14 | 1,193.0 | −2.6% |
| 2018-07-10 | 1,253.8 | 2018-07-16 | 1,238.1 | −1.3% |
| 2018-05-29 | 1,298.7 | 2018-06-18 | 1,276.2 | −1.7% |
| 2018-05-14 | 1,316.5 | 2018-05-16 | 1,290.2 | −2.0% |
| 2018-03-23 | 1,349.3 | 2018-04-24 | 1,331.4 | −1.3% |
| 2018-02-20 | 1,328.8 | 2018-02-21 | 1,330.0 | +0.1% |
| 2017-12-20 | 1,266.1 | 2018-02-01 | 1,344.3 | +6.2% |
| 2017-11-07 | 1,273.7 | 2017-12-04 | 1,274.3 | +0.0% |
| 2017-10-13 | 1,301.5 | 2017-10-24 | 1,275.0 | −2.0% |
| 2017-07-18 | 1,241.1 | 2017-09-14 | 1,324.7 | +6.7% |
| 2017-05-18 | 1,251.7 | 2017-06-14 | 1,272.8 | +1.7% |
| 2017-03-22 | 1,249.3 | 2017-04-26 | 1,262.1 | +1.0% |
| 2017-02-24 | 1,256.9 | 2017-03-03 | 1,225.5 | −2.5% |
| 2017-02-01 | 1,205.6 | 2017-02-23 | 1,250.2 | +3.7% |
| 2016-12-27 | 1,137.3 | 2017-01-31 | 1,208.6 | +6.3% |
| 2016-12-13 | 1,156.7 | 2016-12-16 | 1,135.3 | −1.9% |
| 2016-10-21 | 1,265.9 | 2016-11-15 | 1,224.0 | −3.3% |
| 2016-09-23 | 1,337.2 | 2016-10-03 | 1,309.0 | −2.1% |
| 2016-09-08 | 1,336.8 | 2016-09-14 | 1,321.5 | −1.1% |
| 2016-08-03 | 1,356.1 | 2016-08-08 | 1,333.4 | −1.7% |
| 2016-06-09 | 1,270.2 | 2016-07-15 | 1,326.5 | +4.4% |
| 2016-04-29 | 1,289.2 | 2016-05-12 | 1,270.3 | −1.5% |
| 2016-04-21 | 1,249.0 | 2016-04-25 | 1,238.9 | −0.8% |
| 2016-04-12 | 1,259.4 | 2016-04-15 | 1,233.1 | −2.1% |
| 2016-03-07 | 1,263.2 | 2016-03-09 | 1,256.6 | −0.5% |
| 2015-12-04 | 1,084.5 | 2016-02-29 | 1,233.9 | +13.8% |
| 2015-12-02 | 1,054.2 | 2015-12-03 | 1,061.7 | +0.7% |
| 2015-10-06 | 1,146.8 | 2015-10-26 | 1,167.0 | +1.8% |
| 2015-09-21 | 1,133.1 | 2015-10-02 | 1,137.1 | +0.4% |
| 2015-08-06 | 1,090.2 | 2015-09-08 | 1,120.4 | +2.8% |
| 2015-06-19 | 1,201.5 | 2015-06-25 | 1,171.5 | −2.5% |
| 2015-05-14 | 1,225.4 | 2015-05-27 | 1,185.9 | −3.2% |
| 2015-04-29 | 1,209.8 | 2015-05-01 | 1,174.5 | −2.9% |
| 2015-03-23 | 1,188.0 | 2015-04-23 | 1,194.4 | +0.5% |
| 2015-01-06 | 1,219.3 | 2015-02-02 | 1,276.2 | +4.7% |
| 2014-11-18 | 1,196.7 | 2014-12-18 | 1,194.7 | −0.2% |
| 2014-10-07 | 1,211.7 | 2014-10-31 | 1,171.1 | −3.4% |
| 2014-10-02 | 1,214.2 | 2014-10-06 | 1,206.7 | −0.6% |
| 2014-08-11 | 1,308.5 | 2014-08-20 | 1,293.4 | −1.2% |
| 2014-06-12 | 1,273.6 | 2014-07-15 | 1,296.9 | +1.8% |
| 2014-05-05 | 1,309.0 | 2014-05-28 | 1,259.3 | −3.8% |
| 2014-04-30 | 1,295.6 | 2014-05-02 | 1,302.6 | +0.5% |
| 2014-04-11 | 1,318.7 | 2014-04-21 | 1,288.0 | −2.3% |
| 2014-03-13 | 1,372.2 | 2014-03-19 | 1,341.4 | −2.2% |
| 2014-01-03 | 1,238.4 | 2014-03-10 | 1,341.4 | +8.3% |
| 2013-12-30 | 1,203.1 | 2013-12-31 | 1,201.9 | −0.1% |
| 2013-12-10 | 1,262.4 | 2013-12-20 | 1,205.1 | −4.5% |
| 2013-10-21 | 1,315.7 | 2013-11-06 | 1,317.7 | +0.2% |
| 2013-08-12 | 1,334.7 | 2013-09-06 | 1,386.7 | +3.9% |
| 2013-07-11 | 1,280.1 | 2013-08-08 | 1,310.7 | +2.4% |
| 2013-05-30 | 1,411.5 | 2013-06-21 | 1,291.6 | −8.5% |
| 2013-04-29 | 1,467.4 | 2013-05-17 | 1,364.9 | −7.0% |
| 2013-03-11 | 1,577.8 | 2013-04-04 | 1,551.8 | −1.6% |
| 2013-02-04 | 1,675.3 | 2013-02-12 | 1,648.7 | −1.6% |
| 2013-01-31 | 1,660.6 | 2013-02-01 | 1,669.4 | +0.5% |
| 2013-01-09 | 1,654.8 | 2013-01-29 | 1,660.7 | +0.4% |
| 2013-01-03 | 1,673.7 | 2013-01-08 | 1,661.5 | −0.7% |
| 2012-11-12 | 1,730.3 | 2012-12-03 | 1,719.6 | −0.6% |
| 2012-08-20 | 1,620.1 | 2012-09-26 | 1,750.6 | +8.1% |
| 2012-07-26 | 1,615.0 | 2012-08-16 | 1,616.1 | +0.1% |
| 2012-07-18 | 1,570.4 | 2012-07-19 | 1,580.1 | +0.6% |
| 2012-07-05 | 1,608.9 | 2012-07-11 | 1,575.2 | −2.1% |
| 2012-06-01 | 1,620.5 | 2012-06-25 | 1,587.5 | −2.0% |
| 2012-04-25 | 1,641.4 | 2012-05-09 | 1,593.7 | −2.9% |
| 2012-04-12 | 1,679.5 | 2012-04-24 | 1,643.0 | −2.2% |
| 2012-04-02 | 1,677.5 | 2012-04-05 | 1,628.5 | −2.9% |
| 2012-03-28 | 1,657.9 | 2012-03-30 | 1,669.3 | +0.7% |
| 2012-02-23 | 1,784.9 | 2012-03-01 | 1,721.1 | −3.6% |
| 2012-01-05 | 1,619.4 | 2012-02-14 | 1,715.9 | +6.0% |
| 2011-12-08 | 1,709.8 | 2011-12-09 | 1,712.8 | +0.2% |
| 2011-10-12 | 1,681.3 | 2011-11-18 | 1,724.7 | +2.6% |
| 2011-07-11 | 1,548.8 | 2011-08-26 | 1,794.1 | +15.8% |
| 2011-06-23 | 1,520.1 | 2011-06-24 | 1,500.5 | −1.3% |
| 2011-05-27 | 1,536.3 | 2011-06-13 | 1,515.0 | −1.4% |
| 2011-04-06 | 1,457.7 | 2011-05-06 | 1,491.2 | +2.3% |
| 2011-03-25 | 1,426.1 | 2011-03-28 | 1,419.8 | −0.4% |
| 2011-02-07 | 1,347.6 | 2011-03-14 | 1,424.6 | +5.7% |
| 2010-12-30 | 1,405.6 | 2011-01-06 | 1,371.4 | −2.4% |
| 2010-12-15 | 1,385.5 | 2010-12-16 | 1,370.4 | −1.1% |
| 2010-12-02 | 1,388.5 | 2010-12-13 | 1,397.3 | +0.6% |
| 2010-11-08 | 1,402.8 | 2010-11-16 | 1,338.3 | −4.6% |
| 2010-09-15 | 1,266.7 | 2010-10-20 | 1,343.3 | +6.0% |
| 2010-08-04 | 1,193.7 | 2010-09-14 | 1,269.7 | +6.4% |
| 2010-06-28 | 1,238.2 | 2010-06-29 | 1,242.0 | +0.3% |
| 2010-06-18 | 1,257.2 | 2010-06-24 | 1,245.5 | −0.9% |
| 2010-06-08 | 1,244.0 | 2010-06-11 | 1,228.9 | −1.2% |
| 2010-04-28 | 1,171.3 | 2010-05-20 | 1,187.8 | +1.4% |
| 2010-04-05 | 1,132.9 | 2010-04-21 | 1,148.2 | +1.4% |
| 2010-02-16 | 1,119.3 | 2010-03-12 | 1,101.5 | −1.6% |
| 2010-02-04 | 1,062.4 | 2010-02-05 | 1,052.2 | −1.0% |
| 2010-01-07 | 1,133.1 | 2010-01-22 | 1,089.2 | −3.9% |
| 2009-11-05 | 1,088.7 | 2009-12-08 | 1,142.8 | +5.0% |
| 2009-10-07 | 1,043.3 | 2009-10-23 | 1,055.6 | +1.2% |
| 2009-08-31 | 951.7 | 2009-09-25 | 990.2 | +4.0% |
| 2009-08-03 | 956.6 | 2009-08-12 | 950.7 | −0.6% |
| 2009-07-16 | 935.1 | 2009-07-31 | 953.7 | +2.0% |
| 2009-04-24 | 913.6 | 2009-06-09 | 954.0 | +4.4% |
| 2009-03-23 | 952.1 | 2009-03-30 | 915.5 | −3.8% |
| 2009-01-26 | 908.5 | 2009-02-27 | 941.5 | +3.6% |
| 2008-12-11 | 824.9 | 2009-01-08 | 853.9 | +3.5% |
| 2008-11-10 | 745.6 | 2008-12-09 | 772.4 | +3.6% |
| 2008-10-08 | 903.1 | 2008-10-14 | 836.3 | −7.4% |
| 2008-09-18 | 892.7 | 2008-10-06 | 862.7 | −3.4% |
| 2008-08-26 | 822.2 | 2008-09-11 | 741.3 | −9.8% |
| 2008-06-19 | 901.7 | 2008-07-24 | 922.0 | +2.3% |
| 2008-05-12 | 883.7 | 2008-06-04 | 879.9 | −0.4% |
| 2008-04-15 | 928.7 | 2008-04-24 | 886.8 | −4.5% |
| 2008-03-14 | 998.2 | 2008-03-20 | 919.6 | −7.9% |
| 2008-02-22 | 944.7 | 2008-03-12 | 978.8 | +3.6% |
| 2008-01-28 | 927.1 | 2008-02-04 | 904.9 | −2.4% |
| 2007-12-26 | 826.0 | 2008-01-23 | 882.5 | +6.8% |
| 2007-10-29 | 789.1 | 2007-11-14 | 813.0 | +3.0% |
| 2007-10-17 | 757.5 | 2007-10-23 | 759.0 | +0.2% |
| 2007-08-29 | 666.3 | 2007-10-04 | 737.8 | +10.7% |
| 2007-07-03 | 652.9 | 2007-07-30 | 664.1 | +1.7% |
| 2007-06-20 | 656.1 | 2007-06-27 | 641.7 | −2.2% |
| 2007-06-04 | 670.7 | 2007-06-11 | 654.3 | −2.4% |
| 2007-03-22 | 663.4 | 2007-04-27 | 678.7 | +2.3% |
| 2007-01-18 | 627.1 | 2007-03-02 | 641.5 | +2.3% |
| 2007-01-02 | 635.2 | 2007-01-08 | 607.5 | −4.4% |
| 2006-11-29 | 635.5 | 2006-12-07 | 631.9 | −0.6% |
| 2006-10-13 | 588.8 | 2006-11-20 | 621.2 | +5.5% |
| 2006-09-27 | 597.3 | 2006-10-05 | 571.0 | −4.4% |
| 2006-09-05 | 638.5 | 2006-09-11 | 590.0 | −7.6% |
| 2006-08-02 | 651.6 | 2006-08-11 | 633.5 | −2.8% |
| 2006-06-27 | 581.6 | 2006-07-25 | 617.6 | +6.2% |
| 2006-03-27 | 567.0 | 2006-05-18 | 679.6 | +19.9% |
| 2006-03-02 | 568.2 | 2006-03-08 | 542.5 | −4.5% |
| 2006-02-01 | 569.4 | 2006-02-06 | 570.2 | +0.1% |
| 2006-01-04 | 533.9 | 2006-01-30 | 565.8 | +6.0% |
| 2005-11-15 | 468.1 | 2005-12-16 | 503.4 | +7.5% |
| 2005-10-11 | 477.1 | 2005-10-13 | 471.1 | −1.3% |
| 2005-09-07 | 444.9 | 2005-10-05 | 466.1 | +4.8% |
| 2005-07-27 | 424.7 | 2005-08-23 | 439.4 | +3.5% |
| 2005-06-03 | 423.7 | 2005-07-05 | 422.9 | −0.2% |
| 2005-04-20 | 435.3 | 2005-05-04 | 429.0 | −1.4% |
| 2005-02-14 | 425.8 | 2005-03-21 | 431.1 | +1.2% |
| 2005-01-24 | 426.9 | 2005-02-04 | 414.0 | −3.0% |
| 2004-11-08 | 432.7 | 2004-12-08 | 437.2 | +1.0% |
| 2004-10-21 | 424.4 | 2004-11-03 | 424.6 | +0.0% |
| 2004-09-22 | 407.2 | 2004-10-14 | 418.1 | +2.7% |
| 2004-08-09 | 400.7 | 2004-09-07 | 397.4 | −0.8% |
| 2004-07-08 | 407.8 | 2004-07-21 | 397.1 | −2.6% |
| 2004-06-18 | 395.1 | 2004-07-07 | 402.3 | +1.8% |
| 2004-05-20 | 378.4 | 2004-06-17 | 388.9 | +2.8% |
| 2004-03-10 | 400.0 | 2004-04-12 | 420.1 | +5.0% |
| 2004-02-12 | 413.7 | 2004-02-24 | 404.5 | −2.2% |
| 2003-12-31 | 415.7 | 2004-01-15 | 408.4 | −1.8% |
| 2003-12-01 | 402.7 | 2003-12-22 | 410.6 | +2.0% |
| 2003-11-12 | 394.9 | 2003-11-26 | 396.8 | +0.5% |
| 2003-10-23 | 384.7 | 2003-11-04 | 379.9 | −1.2% |
| 2003-09-23 | 385.9 | 2003-09-29 | 382.4 | −0.9% |
| 2003-08-12 | 358.5 | 2003-09-16 | 373.5 | +4.2% |
| 2003-07-21 | 350.9 | 2003-08-05 | 349.6 | −0.4% |
| 2003-04-11 | 327.9 | 2003-06-04 | 362.6 | +10.6% |
| 2003-04-02 | 329.6 | 2003-04-07 | 321.5 | −2.5% |
| 2003-03-11 | 350.5 | 2003-03-12 | 346.5 | −1.1% |
| 2003-01-24 | 368.2 | 2003-02-10 | 363.7 | −1.2% |
| 2002-12-05 | 324.8 | 2003-01-15 | 350.7 | +8.0% |
| 2002-10-30 | 316.5 | 2002-11-21 | 317.4 | +0.3% |
| 2002-10-01 | 320.9 | 2002-10-02 | 321.5 | +0.2% |
| 2002-08-28 | 309.4 | 2002-09-30 | 323.9 | +4.7% |
| 2002-08-08 | 310.4 | 2002-08-23 | 306.7 | −1.2% |
| 2002-07-17 | 317.4 | 2002-07-25 | 309.8 | −2.4% |
| 2002-05-22 | 318.0 | 2002-06-10 | 318.7 | +0.2% |
| 2002-04-25 | 308.1 | 2002-05-10 | 311.0 | +0.9% |
| 2002-03-26 | 296.6 | 2002-04-15 | 300.0 | +1.1% |
| 2002-02-05 | 298.2 | 2002-02-21 | 293.2 | −1.7% |
| 2001-12-04 | 275.4 | 2002-01-24 | 278.1 | +1.0% |
| 2001-11-13 | 277.8 | 2001-11-16 | 274.7 | −1.1% |
| 2001-11-07 | 281.0 | 2001-11-12 | 278.3 | −1.0% |
| 2001-09-17 | 289.8 | 2001-10-04 | 290.5 | +0.2% |
| 2001-08-06 | 267.1 | 2001-08-28 | 272.3 | +1.9% |
| 2001-07-19 | 269.4 | 2001-07-30 | 264.6 | −1.8% |
| 2001-06-15 | 271.2 | 2001-06-29 | 270.6 | −0.2% |
| 2001-04-16 | 263.3 | 2001-05-31 | 265.3 | +0.8% |
| 2001-02-27 | 267.4 | 2001-03-19 | 259.8 | −2.8% |
| 2001-01-31 | 265.6 | 2001-02-09 | 259.9 | −2.1% |
| 2000-12-21 | 273.7 | 2001-01-03 | 268.0 | −2.1% |
| 2000-11-10 | 264.5 | 2000-12-15 | 270.4 | +2.2% |
How it was tested
- Signals are read on the daily close; each trade happens at the next day’s close. No look-ahead.
- Long only, fully in or fully out. No commissions, slippage, interest or dividends.
- The test starts on the first day every indicator has a value (Oct 19, 2000); buy-and-hold covers the same days.
- Prices: Yahoo Finance daily data (GC=F), snapshot
gold-2026-09-23.csv. Checked by a second, independent program before publishing.
Not financial advice. This is educational content, shared for information and entertainment only, and it is not a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Backtests and past results do not guarantee future results, and the numbers or charts here may contain mistakes. Trading carries risk, including losing all the money you put in. Do your own research before you make any decision.